Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 15 May 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $81.53/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,823 MW — a Saturday morning figure consistent with the weekend load profile. That current price is well above the overnight trough (prices held in the $23–$40/MWh band from roughly 09:00–03:30 AEST) but below the morning peak of $100.11/MWh recorded just after 07:15 AEST. The 24-hour price arc has been a textbook winter weekday-to-weekend transition: a sharp evening peak above $95/MWh, a sustained overnight low, a morning ramp through $80–$87/MWh as demand climbed toward the 9,112 MW intraday peak around 18:00 AEST, then a gradual afternoon and evening softening back into the $55–$77/MWh range before nudging back up into the low $80s in the final intervals of the trading day.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,651 MW (approximately 73% of local dispatch), with wind contributing 873 MW (14%), hydro 465 MW (7%), solar 142 MW (2%), battery 118 MW (2%), and gas OCGT a minimal 24 MW. Gas CCGT is offline. Renewable penetration sits at 25.47% at the latest interval, a notable step down from the overnight high of just over 51% recorded around 11:30–12:30 AEST when demand was low and wind output was stronger relative to total load. Total identified generation across these fuel types is approximately 6,274 MW against a 6,823 MW demand figure, with the balance likely covered by imports.

Carbon intensity is 0.6549 tCO2/MWh at the current interval, having tracked down from a peak of 0.6931 tCO2/MWh at the start of the overnight period, bottoming near 0.4261 tCO2/MWh around 12:30 AEST when renewable penetration was at its highest, before climbing steadily through the day as demand rose and coal output increased relative to renewables. The intensity reading has been essentially flat in the 0.65–0.68 tCO2/MWh range since roughly 03:30 AEST, reflecting the current dispatch stack composition. Weather is a factor to watch: Sydney is sitting at 13°C with 100% cloud cover and negligible solar potential today, suppressing rooftop PV output and sustaining heating demand — conditions that hold through to at least 18 May per the outlook, with solar potential near zero across that window.

Predispatch forecasts point to a material softening ahead. The 07:00 AEST target interval (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $82.69/MWh in the most recent run, but earlier runs through mid-afternoon held that interval at $56.06/MWh — the spread in successive forecasts signals some residual uncertainty in the evening dispatch stack. Overnight intervals from 08:30 AEST (22:30 UTC) onward are consistently forecast in the $23–$44/MWh range, with the 09:30–10:00 AEST window (23:30–00:00 UTC) showing the lowest predispatch prints around $23.88/MWh. On the market notices front, the NSW-relevant active