Carbon Forecast: Sunday 17 May 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at a wide spread this Monday morning, with Tasmania the clear low-intensity region at 0.03 tCO2/MWh on 95.6% renewables — hydro at 1,251 MW and 16 MW of wind driving a near-zero emissions grid. At the other extreme, Victoria is the highest-intensity region at 0.90 tCO2/MWh with just 20.4% renewables; brown coal holds at 1,550 MW and gas OCGT adds 276 MW, with battery discharge (200 MW) and wind (209 MW) providing the remainder. NSW sits at 0.70 tCO2/MWh — black coal dominates at 5,686 MW against 1,178 MW of hydro, 224 MW of wind, and 54 MW of solar, leaving renewables at 20.4%. Queensland is at 0.61 tCO2/MWh with 24.6% renewables; wind (797 MW) and hydro (131 MW) provide the low-carbon contribution alongside 2,132 MW of black coal and 846 MW of gas OCGT. South Australia reads 0.54 tCO2/MWh on just 5.6% renewables, with gas OCGT (492 MW) and gas CCGT (535 MW) comprising the vast majority of generation and wind down to only 60 MW.

The trajectory through today reflects a typical autumn Monday pattern. All regions show their lowest intensity windows occurred in the overnight-to-early-morning period (approximately 06:00–09:30 AEST), when overnight wind output and suppressed demand pushed intensity down — NSW reached 0.59 tCO2/MWh, VIC touched 0.67 tCO2/MWh, and QLD dipped to 0.29 tCO2/MWh around 06:30 AEST. Since then, rising demand into the morning peak has increased thermal dispatch across all regions. VIC and NSW intensity has climbed from those morning lows, and SA has deteriorated sharply as wind generation has collapsed from above 30% penetration overnight to just 5.6% now.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling, the next meaningful low-intensity window NEM-wide is unlikely to arrive until the following overnight period. Solar output is negligible in mid-May, so no midday dip is expected. Wind forecasts will determine whether tonight's window matches this morning's depth — if SA and VIC wind recovers, VIC could revisit sub-0.70 tCO2/MWh and SA could drop back below 0.40 tCO2/MWh. Queensland's overnight wind resource has proven reliable, and another sub-0.35 tCO2/MWh window there is plausible from approximately 22:00–03:00 AEST. Tasmania remains continuously suitable for carbon-sensitive operations at essentially any hour. Operators in NSW and VIC with flexibility to shift load overnight by four to six hours can capture intensity reductions of 0.10–0.20 tCO2/MWh relative to current levels.