Carbon Forecast: Saturday 16 May 2026

Victoria sits at 1.1181 tCO2/MWh with just 8.35% renewables at the 06:30 AEST interval — the highest intensity on the NEM right now and a marked deterioration from the sub-0.31 tCO2/MWh readings it carried through the overnight hours. Brown coal at 1,610 MW is the dominant source in VIC1 this morning, with wind contributing only 64.74 MW and hydro negligible at 0.62 MW. Tasmania is at the opposite end, running 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — 948.42 MW of hydro and 106.01 MW of wind — a position it has held consistently across every interval in the dataset. NSW1 sits at 0.6846 tCO2/MWh with 22.17% renewables, driven by 5,385.75 MW of black coal against 1,007.89 MW of hydro and 519.24 MW of wind. Queensland is at 0.5109 tCO2/MWh with 39.67% renewables — 1,813.49 MW of black coal alongside 1,065.65 MW of wind, 305.35 MW of gas OCGT, and 196.16 MW of battery discharge. South Australia reads 0.4423 tCO2/MWh at 25.25% renewables, with 401.79 MW of gas OCGT and 230.72 MW of gas CCGT providing the bulk of supply and wind at 209.07 MW.

The overnight trajectory tells a clear story for planning purposes. SA1 recorded its lowest intensity between approximately 00:30 and 04:00 AEST, touching 0.0352 tCO2/MWh at 92.82% renewables — a near-zero window driven by strong overnight wind. VIC1's best window ran from roughly 23:00 to 02:00 AEST, where intensity sat in the 0.25–0.27 tCO2/MWh band at close to 79% renewables. NSW1's overnight minimum was around 0.429 tCO2/MWh at 51% renewables near 10:00 AEST local midnight. All three regions have since trended sharply upward through the morning as daytime demand lifted and, in VIC1 and SA1's case, renewable output fell away with the tail end of overnight wind.

With solar output negligible across all regions at this time of year and the current generation mix in place, the window of lowest carbon intensity for today has already passed for SA1, VIC1, and NSW1. The data shows no solar contribution of any consequence — QLD1 registers 0.11 MW and NSW1 just 0.01 MW — confirming the NEM is operating in a winter night-to-morning profile where wind is the primary variable renewable. Carbon-sensitive loads in SA1, VIC1, and NSW1 should note that tonight's overnight period — from approximately 22:00 AEST through to 04:00 AEST — is the most likely window for intensity to ease again, contingent on wind conditions repeating. QLD1's intensity is comparatively stable through the day, ranging 0.44–0.56 tCO2/MWh, reflecting its more consistent coal and wind balance without significant solar contribution.