Carbon Forecast: Friday 15 May 2026

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration across the entire dataset — hydro (864 MW) and wind (226 MW) account for all generation with no fossil fuel dispatch. South Australia sits at 0.11 tCO2/MWh with 82% renewables at the latest interval (06:30 AEST), driven by 818 MW of wind and 128 MW of gas OCGT providing system support. Victoria records 0.32 tCO2/MWh with 73% renewables, where 2,913 MW of wind is the dominant source alongside 1,057 MW of brown coal. Queensland is at 0.53 tCO2/MWh with 39% renewables — 2,120 MW of black coal and 1,226 MW of wind make up the bulk of the dispatch mix, with solar contribution now negligible at 3 MW as daylight has faded. NSW is the highest-intensity region at 0.65 tCO2/MWh with just 25% renewables; 4,651 MW of black coal dominates, with 873 MW of wind and 465 MW of hydro rounding out meaningful contributors.

Looking at the day's trajectory, NSW intensity moved lowest in the overnight window — reaching 0.43 tCO2/MWh around 11:30–12:00 AEST when renewables peaked near 51% — before climbing back to current levels as coal reasserted baseload share. SA showed a brief intensity spike between 17:30–20:00 AEST (up to 0.09 tCO2/MWh at peak) as wind eased, but has remained well below other mainland regions throughout. QLD's overnight period produced intensity as low as 0.24 tCO2/MWh around 23:30–00:30 AEST on elevated wind and reduced thermal dispatch. VIC held relatively steady between 0.27–0.40 tCO2/MWh across the full period.

For carbon-sensitive loads today, the optimal dispatch windows across the NEM are currently available in TAS (continuously), SA (now and into the morning, intensity likely to ease further as wind holds), and VIC (which has sustained sub-0.30 tCO2/MWh through much of the afternoon and evening). NSW and QLD present limited low-intensity opportunities tonight given the absence of solar and stable coal baseload — the next meaningful window for those regions will be the pre-dawn wind trough followed by any overnight wind uplift, broadly replicating the pattern observed in the 23:00–02:00 AEST range. Carbon-sensitive flexible loads in NSW and QLD are best scheduled for that overnight corridor rather than current conditions.