Carbon Forecast: Thursday 14 May 2026

Carbon intensity across the NEM sits at sharply divergent levels as of 06:30 AEST Friday 15 May. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro at 1,060 MW and wind at 167 MW covering all local demand. South Australia is virtually tied at 0.01 tCO2/MWh with 97.89% renewables; 1,879 MW of wind dominates, with a token 41 MW CCGT and 32 MW battery rounding out supply. Victoria sits at 0.34 tCO2/MWh with 72.11% renewables, driven by 2,258 MW of wind alongside 992 MW of brown coal and 307 MW of battery discharge. Queensland is at 0.46 tCO2/MWh with 46.83% renewables — 1,372 MW wind, 2,033 MW black coal, and 393 MW battery. NSW is the highest-intensity region at 0.69 tCO2/MWh with only 21.79% renewables; black coal dominates at 5,301 MW against 768 MW wind, 548 MW hydro, and 147 MW solar.

The intraday pattern in the data is clear. NSW intensity peaked above 0.69 tCO2/MWh through the overnight and morning demand ramp, with renewables dropping to around 22% as coal carried baseload. Victoria followed a similar overnight arc, touching 0.70 tCO2/MWh around 12:30–13:00 AEST before wind generation pushed intensity down into the 0.38–0.41 range through the afternoon. SA ran an extended green window from roughly 09:30 AEST onward, with intensity below 0.03 tCO2/MWh from midday through the current interval — wind at near-capacity levels and demand low. Queensland's coal-heavy midday peak (0.54–0.57 tCO2/MWh, 10:00–17:00 AEST) has eased into the current 0.46 tCO2/MWh as evening wind picks up.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal scheduling windows today are already open in SA and Tasmania and are likely to persist into the evening given the strong wind resource evident in both regions. Victoria's current 0.34 tCO2/MWh is the lowest it has been in the dataset and, with 2,258 MW of wind online and no solar after sunset, the trajectory depends on overnight wind persistence — if wind holds, Victoria should remain in the 0.34–0.40 range through the night. NSW offers no comparable green window; with black coal at 5,301 MW and renewables below 22%, intensity is unlikely to fall materially until tomorrow's solar ramp. Carbon-sensitive loads in NSW that can shift to off-peak overnight should note that the dataset shows the region's best window was around 10:30–14:30 AEST (53–55% renewables, ~0.40 tCO2/MWh) — that window has now closed for today.