Carbon Forecast: Wednesday 13 May 2026

Tasmania is the lowest-intensity region on the NEM right now at 0.03 tCO2/MWh with 95% renewable penetration, driven by 1,050 MW of hydro and 130 MW of wind. South Australia sits at 0.12 tCO2/MWh with 81% renewables — 1,068 MW of wind carrying the bulk of local generation alongside 250 MW of gas peakers. Queensland is at 0.43 tCO2/MWh with 51% renewables, where 1,558 MW of wind and 176 MW of hydro are offset by 1,797 MW of black coal. NSW is at 0.62 tCO2/MWh with only 29% renewable penetration — 5,849 MW of black coal dominates the stack, with 1,408 MW of wind and 695 MW of hydro providing the renewable contribution and solar near zero at this hour. Victoria is the highest-intensity region at 0.65 tCO2/MWh; 1,656 MW of brown coal anchors the generation mix, with 1,260 MW of wind and 160 MW of battery discharge pushing renewables to 46% but insufficient to move intensity below the 0.65 mark.

Looking at today's trajectory from the interval data, SA recorded its lowest-intensity window between approximately 13:30 and 17:30 AEST, with intensity dipping to 0.076–0.079 tCO2/MWh on renewable penetration above 87%. That midday-to-late-afternoon window is the clearest green window across the NEM and reflects strong solar and wind overlap in SA during those hours. NSW and VIC both saw intensity soften between 07:00–09:00 AEST as morning solar ramped, but intensity climbed again through the midday period — the opposite of SA's pattern — as thermal plant held firm through the business day. QLD tracked similarly, with intensity rising from a trough around 0.24 tCO2/MWh in the early hours (07:00–09:00 AEST, wind dominant) to a peak near 0.52 tCO2/MWh by midday before moderating through the afternoon.

For carbon-sensitive loads scheduling flexible consumption today, SA remains the best option through the remainder of the day, with intensity holding below 0.12 tCO2/MWh and wind generation sustaining above 1,000 MW into the evening. TAS is structurally near-zero throughout, though interconnector constraints limit the relevance of that signal for mainland operations. NSW and VIC offer no clear low-intensity window for the rest of today's trading day — both regions are in their evening demand ramp with solar at zero and thermal plant carrying load. Loads in those regions seeking lower-carbon consumption windows should target pre-07:00 AEST tomorrow when overnight wind and reduced demand typically allow renewables to lift their share of the stack.