Interconnector Watch: Monday 11 May 2026

Six interconnectors are active across the NEM right now, with two binding and shaping the most significant price spreads of the morning.

QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is running at its import limit of -590 MW — fully bound, with flows moving from Queensland into NSW. The constraint is binding on the import side, meaning QLD's lower price of $85.73/MWh cannot fully arbitrage into NSW at $103.37/MWh despite the $17.64/MWh spread incentive. This binding condition is compounded by a lingering network notice: the Armidale No.3 330/132 kV transformer has been on unplanned outage since 8 May, invoking constraint set N-AR_TX and restricting N-Q-MNSP1 capacity. Directlink's No.3 leg outage (active since 5 May, constraint N-MBTE_1) is also still in force, further constraining the NSW-QLD corridor. Traders should note these network restrictions are not yet resolved — the Armidale transformer outage has no confirmed return-to-service time.

Heywood (V-SA) is the second binding interconnector, sitting exactly at its export limit of 281.71 MW from Victoria into South Australia. With V-SA fully bound and Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) contributing an additional 81 MW westward — running at 83% of its 98 MW export limit — South Australia's total import from Victoria sits around 363 MW. Despite that, SA prices are at $125/MWh against Victoria's $103.28/MWh, a $21.72/MWh spread that the Heywood binding constraint is preventing the market from closing. Murraylink has headroom of roughly 17 MW before it also reaches its export limit.

VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) carries 251.79 MW northward from Victoria into NSW, at 88% of its -285.93 MW import limit — close to, but not yet binding. The near-symmetrical NSW and Victoria prices ($103.37 and $103.28/MWh respectively) are consistent with this link operating close to capacity in the prevailing flow direction; any demand shift in NSW or Victorian generation change could push it to bind. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow with Tasmania priced at $106.24/MWh versus Victoria's $103.28/MWh — that $2.96/MWh differential is insufficient to drive a committed flow direction, and the link sits idle within its ±125 MW range. N-Q-MNSP1 (Terranora/Directlink) carries -65 MW northward into Queensland, within its -98.7 MW import limit and not binding, consistent with QLD being the lowest-priced mainland region at $85.73/MWh.

The dominant market dynamic today is the NSW-QLD corridor bottleneck. With QNI fully bound on imports and multiple active constraint notices restricting both QNI and Directlink, NSW cannot absorb additional low-priced Queensland energy, sustaining the $17.64/MWh spread. The Heywood binding constraint is independently supporting SA's $125/MWh price floor. Traders with exposure to NSW spot or SA basis risk should monitor the Armidale transformer restoration timeline closely — any return to service would be the primary trigger for QNI constraint relief and potential NSW price softening.