Interconnector Watch: Tuesday 19 May 2026

At 06:30 AEST, VIC-NSW (QNI's sister link) is the dominant inter-regional flow on the NEM, carrying 943 MW northward from Victoria into NSW — sitting at 90% of its 1,053 MW export limit and the closest any interconnector is to its ceiling right now. Despite proximity to capacity, the constraint is not formally binding, though the headroom of roughly 110 MW warrants watching as morning demand builds in NSW, which is already sitting at 8,066 MW at $76.98/MWh. The $13.53/MWh spread between VIC ($63.45/MWh) and NSW ($76.98/MWh) reflects this northward pressure, with Victorian surplus continuing to price into the NSW market.

QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 84 MW southward from Queensland into NSW, sitting exactly at its export limit of -84 MW — making it the only interconnector effectively at its limit, though AEMO has not flagged it as formally binding in dispatch. Queensland is the highest-priced mainland region at $111.11/MWh, a $34.13/MWh premium over NSW, which would ordinarily drive stronger northward flow; the constrained QNI export ceiling is preventing that arbitrage from fully clearing, sustaining Queensland's elevated price. The active Armidale No.3 330/132 kV transformer outage (constraint set N-AR_TX, invoked 8 May) continues to limit N-Q-MNSP1 (Directlink), which is carrying just 9 MW northward at its 9 MW export ceiling — effectively capped.

Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is the most significant infrastructure story today. The link is carrying only 18 MW from Victoria to SA despite its 116 MW export capability, and two active AEMO market notices confirm an unplanned outage of the Redcliffs converter station (invoked 17 May, constraint set I-ML_ZERO) has severely restricted transfer capacity. SA is relying principally on Heywood (V-SA), which is flowing 236 MW westward from Victoria at just over 50% of its 466 MW export limit — well within capacity and not binding. The $2.22/MWh spread between VIC ($63.45/MWh) and SA ($65.67/MWh) is narrow, consistent with Heywood providing adequate arbitrage in Murraylink's absence, though SA's exposure to a Heywood contingency remains elevated while Murraylink stays offline.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow this interval, with Tasmania priced at $96.18/MWh — a $32.73/MWh premium over Victoria. The absence of southward (export) flow from Tasmania despite that spread suggests operational or scheduling factors are preventing arbitrage; traders should monitor whether Basslink resumes southward dispatch as the morning progresses, given the price incentive is clear. No active constraint notices apply to Basslink at this time.