Carbon Forecast: Monday 11 May 2026

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — hydro at 742 MW and wind at 58 MW carrying the entire load with zero thermal generation. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.29 tCO2/MWh with 44.6% renewables; wind is producing 254 MW with gas CCGT (235 MW) and OCGT (80 MW) filling the balance. These two regions represent the best conditions on the NEM right now for carbon-sensitive scheduling.

NSW sits at 0.75 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 14.8% — black coal dominates at 5,639 MW, with wind contributing 208 MW, solar 64 MW, and hydro 706 MW. Queensland is the highest-intensity mainland region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh and only 3.95% renewables, with 2,091 MW of black coal and negligible gas OCGT making up essentially the entire mix; solar is at zero reflecting post-sunset conditions. Victoria sits at 1.08 tCO2/MWh with 1,652 MW of brown coal and wind at 221 MW providing 11.9% of supply — its intensity has been climbing since the 06:30 AEST trough this morning when it briefly dipped to 0.89 tCO2/MWh as wind picked up.

Looking at today's trajectory, SA recorded its lowest intensity window between approximately 14:00 and 16:00 AEST, touching 0.10 tCO2/MWh at 79% renewable penetration as solar peaked. That solar contribution is now absent and intensity is drifting upward toward 0.30 tCO2/MWh through the evening. For NSW, the data shows intensity was notably lower in the 07:00–09:00 AEST range (0.74–0.75 tCO2/MWh) and is now broadly flat through the evening. Queensland shows no meaningful intra-day variation — the near-absence of utility solar after sunset and thin wind capacity keeps intensity locked in the 0.84–0.85 tCO2/MWh band regardless of time.

For carbon-sensitive loads requiring scheduling decisions for the remainder of today, the viable windows have largely passed for SA and NSW solar-driven troughs. Tasmania remains the standout option at any hour given its all-renewable baseload profile. SA's evening wind output (253 MW sustained) is keeping intensity well below its overnight peaks, but operators should anticipate upward pressure past 21:00 AEST as wind variability typically increases. VIC and QLD offer no low-intensity windows today without a material change in wind dispatch.