commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $12.09/MWh with total demand at 5,011 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a level that is rising through the early-morning ramp but still well below today's expected peak. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been textbook: demand troughed near 3,500–3,600 MW in the early hours (approximately 11:00–12:00 AEST) when prices ran deeply negative, reaching as low as -$13.45/MWh, before the morning residential and commercial ramp began pushing prices back into positive territory. By 06:30 AEST demand has climbed roughly 1,500 MW from that overnight floor, and prices have responded accordingly, recovering from negative into the low teens.

The day's most price-sensitive period is the morning peak, which the history shows in sharp relief: when demand approached 6,200–6,340 MW between roughly 17:30–18:30 AEST, spot prices cleared between $82/MWh and $109/MWh across multiple intervals, with the $108.87/MWh print the session high. That demand band — roughly 6,100–6,300 MW — is the threshold at which generation capacity tightens and marginal plant price aggressively. Today's early-evening peak is forecast to follow the same pattern. With demand currently climbing at approximately 200–400 MW per half-hour through the morning ramp, the grid is on track to re-enter that high-price band around 17:00–19:00 AEST this evening. Forecast prices for the 07:00 AEST half-hour are priced at approximately $34.69/MWh by the most recent dispatch forecast, with the 07:30–08:00 AEST window (16:30–17:00 AEST in trading terms) expected in the low-to-mid $30s — meaningfully below the $80–$110/MWh observed at comparable demand levels earlier in the trading day, suggesting either a more favourable supply stack or updated bid behaviour.

Traders should note a significant volume of AEMO market notices flagging prices subject to review under clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across multiple overnight and early-morning intervals — covering 02:05 through to 05:45 AEST. One interval (05:25 AEST) has already been confirmed unchanged. The remaining intervals under review span a period when prices were running negative to low single digits; any revision upward would affect settlement costs for positions held across those windows. The generation mix at 06:30 AEST sits at 1,084 MW wind, 1,562 MW brown coal, and 110 MW gas OCGT, with solar at zero and carbon intensity at 0.717 tCO2/MWh — carbon intensity will rise as demand builds and the mix shifts, consistent with the pattern seen this morning when intensity peaked above 1.03 tCO2/MWh during the 07:30–08:30 AEST high-demand window.