commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $75.22/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,058 MW — a sharp 27% drop from the overnight peak of 1,293 MW reached around 18:00–19:00 AEST, when prices were holding in the $96–$110/MWh range. The price decline to $75.22/MWh coincides directly with demand retreating from that peak band, confirming a tight demand-price relationship in this market. Generation is currently supplied by 600 MW of hydro and 127 MW of wind, with gas OCGT at zero output, consistent with the low-price environment.
The overnight price history reveals a clear demand-price escalation pattern: as demand climbed through the 06:00–08:30 AEST window toward 1,290 MW, prices spiked into the $110–$240/MWh range, with a high of $240.95/MWh at 08:00 AEST when demand was near its peak. Once demand began retreating through the 09:00–14:00 AEST period, prices settled firmly at $96.22/MWh, then eased further to the current $75.22/MWh as demand fell below 1,060 MW. The $75.22/MWh level appears to be a floor price associated with low overnight demand conditions.
Forecast data for today points to prices holding at $75.22/MWh through the 07:00 AEST period, with the 07:30 AEST half-hour forecast at $75.22/MWh confirming no immediate upward pressure. The key watch point is the morning demand ramp: forecasts show prices nudging toward the $80–$86/MWh range in the 10:00–12:00 AEST window as residential and commercial demand builds, but no forecasts approach the $110–$240/MWh range seen during overnight demand peaks. Traders should monitor demand crossing the 1,200 MW threshold, which historically in this dataset has coincided with price escalation above $110/MWh.
Note that AEMO has issued multiple "Prices Subject to Review" market notices under NER clause 3.9.2B for intervals across the early morning today (00:05–06:20 AEST), with two intervals subsequently confirmed unchanged. Several notices remain active, meaning prices in those intervals carry revision risk. The 06:05 and 06:20 AEST intervals are still under review; any retrospective changes would not affect real-time dispatch but are relevant for settlement exposure.