commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $110.24/MWh with demand at 1,189 MW at 06:30 AEST, tracking the evening ramp that began around 05:30 AEST (06:30 UTC) as demand climbed from a overnight trough of approximately 937 MW at 13:35 UTC (around 23:35 AEST). The price-demand relationship today has been notably step-wise: prices held in the $65–$75/MWh range during overnight minimum load, jumped to the $96/MWh band as demand crossed the ~1,000 MW threshold, then lifted to the $110/MWh band once demand pushed above approximately 1,100 MW through the morning ramp. The day's peak so far reached 1,320 MW at 18:25 UTC (04:25 AEST), where prices spiked repeatedly into the $125–$213/MWh range — a clear signal that marginal supply becomes constrained above roughly 1,280 MW.
The current demand trajectory of 1,189 MW and rising is consistent with the typical Monday morning load build. Forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval are tightly clustered at $110.24/MWh across the most recent runs, suggesting the market does not expect demand to press into the upper constraint zone in the near term. The 07:30 AEST interval carries slightly higher forecast uncertainty, with some runs at $110–$126/MWh. Generation is currently 638.64 MW hydro and 29.88 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero, indicating hydro dispatch is absorbing the load growth without thermal support at this stage.
A significant market notice concern applies today: AEMO has issued "prices subject to review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B for a continuous run of intervals from 05:05 through to 06:30 AEST, citing possible manifestly incorrect inputs. The only confirmed-unchanged interval in this sequence was 04:40 AEST. Traders with exposure to those intervals should note that prices — currently showing at $88–$96/MWh — remain subject to revision. The volume of consecutive review notices across the early morning ramp is an operational risk factor for settlement positions. Overnight, AEMO confirmed prices for the 02:20 AEST interval unchanged under the same review process, providing a partial precedent, but the morning sequence is materially larger in scope.