commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $110.22/MWh with demand at 1,163 MW at 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of around 931 MW recorded near 13:00–14:00 AEST. The demand-price relationship has been consistent and tight across today's trading: prices held in the $88–$96/MWh band through the low-demand overnight period, then stepped up to $110.22/MWh as demand climbed through the morning ramp. A brief spike to $177.20/MWh occurred at 18:15 AEST when demand reached approximately 1,299 MW — the day's observed peak — illustrating how thin the margin between the baseline price tier and the next price step is when demand pushes toward the 1,300 MW range. Outside that spike, the $110.22/MWh level has been the dominant price anchor across high-demand periods, indicating a supply stack where the marginal unit prices at that level once demand clears roughly 1,150 MW.
Demand is now rising again from the post-peak afternoon trough of around 1,040–1,060 MW, with the current trajectory consistent with typical evening ramp behaviour. Forecasts peg the near-term intervals at $96.22/MWh, suggesting the market expects demand to ease back below the $110/MWh threshold as the evening progresses, though the current 1,163 MW reading is already above that implied breakpoint. The overnight period forecast softens further, with modelled prices dipping to the mid-$60s to low-$70s/MWh in the early hours of tomorrow as demand falls back toward the 930–960 MW trough range — mirroring the pattern observed in last night's trading.
Traders should note a significant volume of AEMO market notices flagging prices subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, covering intervals from approximately 03:00 through 06:30 AEST today. Two intervals — 02:25 and 03:25 — have since been confirmed unchanged, but the remaining notices spanning the pre-dawn and early morning period are still active. These intervals correspond to the lower-demand, lower-price window ($65–$96/MWh), so material retrospective price changes remain a live risk for positions settled across that window. The volume and consecutive nature of these notices — more than 30 active reviews — is atypical and warrants close monitoring ahead of final settlement.