commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at **$88.16/MWh** with demand at **1,075 MW** as of 06:30 AEST — well below the intraday peak of **1,279 MW** reached around 18:10 AEST, when price was already locked at $88.20/MWh. That price floor has been remarkably stable: the RRP has traded in a tight $88.16–$88.20/MWh band for the vast majority of the past 12 hours, suggesting the marginal dispatch stack is pinned to a single price-setting unit with little sensitivity to demand variation across this range. The only material price departures were isolated intervals dipping to $55–$65/MWh in the early morning trough (demand ~910–960 MW, between roughly 11:00–15:00 AEST) and brief spikes to $96.24/MWh during the evening ramp around 06:30–07:05 AEST when demand was climbing through 1,200 MW.

The demand trajectory today has followed a textbook weekday-shoulder profile: a deep overnight trough bottoming near **906 MW** around 12:50 AEST, a steady morning ramp to the 1,270–1,279 MW range by 18:00–18:10 AEST, then a gradual post-peak decline to the current 1,075 MW level as the evening winds down. The weekend effect is now visible — demand is tracking roughly 150–200 MW below the intraday peak and continuing to ease. Generation is currently 604 MW hydro and 113 MW wind, with gas OCGT offline, consistent with the relaxed demand environment.

Forward forecasts point to a step-up in price pressure as demand begins its next morning ramp. The AEMO pre-dispatch series shows **$96.18–$96.20/MWh** priced firmly into the 07:00–08:00 AEST window, with the 17:00–18:00 AEST window also forecast at $96.18/MWh — implying the market expects demand to push back through the threshold that triggers the higher-cost marginal unit. The 08:30 AEST and 10:00 AEST windows ease back to $88.16/MWh, pointing to mid-morning demand softening consistent with a Saturday load pattern. Traders should note the price response is binary rather than graduated: Tasmania's compact dispatch stack moves cleanly between the $88/MWh and $96/MWh price levels with little gradation, so demand crossing the relevant MW threshold — likely somewhere above 1,200 MW — is the key trigger to watch in today's morning ramp.

One contextual factor worth flagging: there are no active market notices directly constraining Tasmania's interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) at present, following the clearance of the Gordon–Chapel Street N-2 constraint set. This means Bass Link is operating without the binding export constraints that restricted flows earlier in the week, which gives the Tasmanian dispatch stack more flexibility to respond to Victorian price signals and reduces the risk of local price separation events during today's demand ramp.