commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at **88.2 $/MWh** with demand at **1,161.85 MW** at 06:35 AEST, and the two are moving in lockstep through the evening ramp. Demand bottomed near **946 MW** around 02:15–02:25 AEST — the overnight trough where prices compressed to a sustained **55.14 $/MWh** floor — before climbing steadily through the evening. The 88.2 $/MWh ceiling price has been anchored firmly since around 18:00 AEST (04:00 UTC) and has not budged through the entire evening ramp, suggesting the market is clearing against a binding supply or interconnector constraint rather than responding to marginal demand increments. The price simply switches between the floor (~55 $/MWh) and this ceiling with relatively little gradient in between.

Today's demand trajectory follows a clear autumn pattern. The day-time trough sat around **955–985 MW** between 02:00–04:00 AEST (16:00–18:00 UTC), reflecting the post-solar, pre-evening lull. The morning peak reached **1,284 MW** at approximately 08:10 AEST before easing through the afternoon. Demand is now climbing again on the evening heating ramp — temperatures are **6.7°C** with a heating demand index of 11.3 — and the trajectory points toward a second peak above **1,200 MW** as the night progresses. Forecast RRP for the 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval is already flagged at **96.24 $/MWh**, signalling that AEMO's pre-dispatch sees the evening ramp pushing prices above the current ceiling.

The price-demand relationship here is not smooth or continuous — it is binary. Below roughly 1,000 MW, prices clear near or below 55 $/MWh; above approximately 1,100 MW, prices snap to 88.2 $/MWh and stay there regardless of whether demand is 1,120 MW or 1,285 MW. This pattern points to a structural constraint — likely Basslink (T-V-MNSP1 interconnector) capacity — that caps import headroom and leaves Tasmania exposed to its own generation stack ceiling once local demand exceeds a threshold. The Gordon–Chapel St 220 kV N-2 contingency constraint was active earlier today (cancelled at 23:04 UTC / 09:04 AEST) and had T-V-MNSP1 on its left-hand side, directly restricting Basslink transfer limits during part of the morning peak period.

For the remainder of today, the forecast RRP step-up to 96.24 $/MWh from 07:30 AEST onwards confirms the market expects further demand escalation into the late evening. Load windows show the cheapest available intervals are in the 08:30–12:00 AEST range (10:30 UTC–02:00 UTC) at 50–57 $/MWh — a roughly **38–42 $/MWh saving** against current prices. Demand-side participants with flexibility should note the narrow window between now and the forecast peak; once demand pushes consistently above 1,200 MW under these autumn heating conditions, the price is unlikely to retreat from the 88–96 $/MWh band until well into the early hours of Saturday morning.