commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.2/MWh with demand at 1,140 MW as of 06:35 AEST, tracking the evening ramp that is now underway. The day's price-demand relationship has been textbook: overnight demand bottomed near 952 MW around 01:40 AEST with prices in the low-to-mid $80s/MWh, before the morning peak drove demand to 1,351 MW at 08:15 AEST — the session high — and pushed prices to intraday peaks of $140–$157/MWh across multiple intervals. The afternoon trough saw demand ease to around 960 MW between 16:20–16:45 AEST with prices softening to the low-to-mid $90s/MWh, confirming a tight demand-price correlation across today's trading.
The current $88.2/MWh price reflects a transitional position: demand is climbing off its afternoon low and the evening ramp is building. Forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are pinned at $88.2/MWh across multiple pre-dispatch runs, indicating the market is not anticipating a repeat of this morning's $130–$157/MWh spikes. This is consistent with typical autumn evening demand in Tasmania — a moderate ramp to the 1,100–1,200 MW range rather than the supply-constrained conditions that drove the morning price volatility. Gas OCGT is at zero output, with hydro at 424 MW and wind at 192 MW covering current load at 100% renewable penetration and 0 tCO2/MWh intensity.
For the remainder of today's trading, the load window data points to overnight softening from around 10:00 AEST (00:00 UTC) onward, with forecast prices stepping down into the $55–$77/MWh range during the early morning off-peak. Demand-side participants holding flexible load have a clear arbitrage window: current $88.2/MWh exposure versus forecast prices as low as $23–$44/MWh in the 13:00–13:30 AEST window. The key demand risk to watch is how quickly tonight's ramp consolidates — if demand tracks above the 1,200 MW level and approaches the morning's 1,350 MW peak, the supply stack tightness that generated $140+/MWh intervals this morning could recur, particularly given hydro is the primary dispatchable resource and gas OCGT has not been called upon today.