commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $96.24/MWh with demand at 1,161.82 MW as of 06:35 AEST, tracking through the evening ramp. Today's demand profile shows a clear diurnal pattern: a trough of around 860 MW in the early hours (roughly 11:30–12:30 AEST), a morning peak approaching 1,242 MW near 18:25 AEST, a mid-afternoon soft patch settling around 930–950 MW through 14:30–16:30 AEST, and a second evening ramp now underway that is pushing demand back above 1,150 MW. Price response to demand is tight in this band — intervals below 950 MW consistently cleared at $65–$67/MWh, while demand above ~1,150 MW anchors price at the $96/MWh level that has dominated much of the day.

The most notable pricing event today was a sustained mid-morning spike between approximately 19:00–21:35 AEST, when demand held in the 1,150–1,242 MW range and prices broke above $96/MWh, reaching $229.88/MWh at 20:50 AEST. That episode — roughly a dozen consecutive intervals trading between $107/MWh and $230/MWh — reflects tight system conditions when demand pressed toward the daily ceiling. Prices then retreated sharply once demand pulled back into the 1,100–1,130 MW range, confirming a demand threshold near 1,220–1,240 MW above which marginal cost escalates rapidly.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window target $96.22–$96.24/MWh, consistent with current pricing. The 07:30 and 08:00 AEST half-hours attract slightly higher forecast prices of $99–$113/MWh across some forecast runs, reflecting the morning demand ramp that typically drives Tasmania toward the 1,150–1,200 MW range. If the demand ramp mirrors today's morning profile — which reached 1,242 MW by 18:25 AEST — prices could test the $107–$130/MWh range during the 07:00–09:30 AEST period on Thursday. Generation is currently 597 MW hydro and 114 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero, indicating no thermal backstop is being called upon at present demand levels.

No Tasmania-specific market notices are currently active that would directly constrain dispatch capacity today. The Farrell line contingency events from 11–13 April (notices 141053/141069) have been resolved, with constraint sets T-JB_MC_TI_250 and F-T-JB_MC_TI_N-2 revoked as of 13 April. Demand-side managers should note that the $65–$67/MWh floor price window is available during overnight periods (roughly 22:00–05:00 AEST) when demand sits below 950 MW, while the morning and evening ramps carry material exposure above $96/MWh if demand exceeds the ~1,220 MW threshold that has consistently driven price escalation through today's trading.