commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at **88.16 $/MWh** at 06:30 AEST with demand at **1,121.68 MW**, rising steadily over the past 30 minutes from a 06:00 AEST low around 1,028 MW. The demand trajectory is tracking the classic morning ramp — demand bottomed out overnight near **826 MW** around 13:30–14:00 AEST and has been climbing since, with the current level representing a 295 MW lift from the overnight trough. Price has responded in lockstep: the $85.92–$86 $/MWh overnight floor gave way to $88.16 $/MWh as demand crossed the 1,000 MW threshold around 06:00 AEST, and the price has held that level with notable stability for the past 90 minutes.

The demand-price relationship today shows two distinct pricing regimes. Below roughly 950–960 MW, Tasmania trades in the $64–$75 $/MWh range, visible in the afternoon solar window (14:30–16:00 AEST) and several overnight intervals. Above 1,000 MW, the market steps up to the $85.92–$95.18 $/MWh band, with brief excursions to $98–$122 $/MWh at the morning peak (07:45–09:00 AEST, when demand reached **1,204 MW**). Today's intraday peak of **1,204.53 MW** at 18:35 AEST coincided with prices holding at $94.70 $/MWh — well short of a material spike — suggesting supply headroom remained adequate through the morning high.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (21:00–22:30 UTC) are clustered at **$95.19–$96.18 $/MWh**, a step up from the current $88.16 $/MWh. This aligns with demand continuing to climb through the Tuesday morning peak, consistent with the pattern seen at equivalent times. Generation is currently 649 MW hydro and 164 MW wind against 1,122 MW demand, implying Basslink import is covering the balance. The Farrell–Tribute/John Butters/Mackintosh credible contingency event — active since 11 April and constraining T-V-MNSP1 via sets F-T-JB_MC_TI_N-2 and T-JB_MC_TI_250 — was cancelled at 20:25 UTC (06:25 AEST), removing an interconnector constraint that had been in place for two days. That revocation coincides with the price holding at $88.16 $/MWh rather than pushing toward the $95+ level, suggesting some easing of Basslink import limitations as demand rises into the peak window.

Demand-side risk for today centres on whether the morning peak pushes materially above the 1,200 MW seen at the prior peak. If demand tracks above 1,150 MW in the 07:30–09:00 AEST window — which the $95–$96 $/MWh forecast implies is expected — prices will step up but the constraint cancellation reduces the probability of a sharper move. The afternoon period (00:30–02:00 UTC / 10:30–12:00 AEST