commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price is $130.38/MWh at 6:35 AEST with demand at 1,109.91 MW — a sharp escalation from the $69–$88/MWh range that prevailed through the overnight trough, when demand bottomed near 850 MW around 11:00–12:00 AEST. The demand trajectory today has followed a textbook autumn morning ramp: from the overnight floor, load climbed steadily through the 06:00–09:00 AEST window, peaking at approximately 1,195 MW around 19:15–19:25 AEST before easing slightly. That morning ramp directly triggered the price step-change, with prices crossing $100/MWh consistently once demand cleared the 1,050 MW threshold near 17:00 AEST. The single intra-day price spike to $143.90/MWh at 07:10 AEST coincided with demand pushing through 1,056 MW on an accelerating trajectory, illustrating how thin the supply stack becomes in that 1,050–1,100 MW band.
The current demand level of 1,109.91 MW sits in the zone where Tasmania's price is clearly sensitive to marginal supply availability, with hydro generation contributing 576.83 MW and wind 34.47 MW at the most recent generation snapshot — leaving a significant portion of demand dependent on Basslink flows from Victoria. The generation mix data shows gas OCGT at zero output, meaning any tightening of Basslink capacity or a demand surge would push the dispatch price higher without peaking plant to buffer it. The $130–$132/MWh range seen in the last three intervals is consistent with this supply configuration under elevated demand.
Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) have converged tightly around $125–$131/MWh across the most recent runs, a meaningful downward revision from earlier in the dispatch day when forecasters had the same interval pencilled above $196–$204/MWh. That revision reflects demand now tracking below the worst-case scenario. Forecasts for the 07:30 AEST half-hour point to $96–$120/MWh, consistent with demand easing as Tasmania moves past the evening peak period. Load windows beyond 08:30 AEST are forecast uniformly in the $76–$97/MWh band, suggesting the market expects demand to pull back toward the 900–950 MW range as the Wednesday morning off-peak sets in, releasing pricing pressure toward the floor level observed through the previous night's low-demand window.