commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $96.18/MWh with demand at 956 MW as of 07:30 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's session has been direct and consistent: the morning peak pushed demand to 1,125 MW between 18:00–19:00 AEST, sustaining $96.18/MWh for an extended run with brief excursions to $107.13/MWh at 17:20 and $106.81/MWh at 17:35–17:40. The overnight trough bottomed at 810 MW around 08:55 AEST, where prices compressed to a session low of $61.81/MWh at 14:25, with the $60–70/MWh range characterising most of the 08:00–14:30 AEST window. The rebound from trough to current levels — roughly 146 MW of demand recovery — has brought prices back firmly to the $96.18/MWh anchor that dominates the forward curve.
The overnight-to-morning demand ramp is the clearest price driver in the data. Demand climbed from ~820 MW at 10:00 AEST to above 1,000 MW by 16:35, crossing the threshold at which the marginal dispatch cost settles at $96.18/MWh and holds there with high stability. The brief spikes above $100/MWh at 17:20 ($107.13/MWh, 913 MW) and 16:35–16:40 ($106.18/MWh, $110.29/MWh) are notable: they occur at demand levels well below the morning peak of 1,125 MW, indicating that Basslink flow conditions or hydro dispatch scheduling — rather than raw demand volume alone — are intermittently tightening the supply stack intraday.
Forward forecasts for today are tightly clustered around $96.18/MWh through to 08:00 AEST tomorrow, with the 07:30 UTC target (17:30 AEST) forecast at $108.08/MWh across multiple forecast runs — a consistent signal that the late-afternoon demand rebuild is expected to create a further price step-up. Generation currently comprises 335 MW hydro and 117 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero, indicating the hydro dispatch position has headroom but is not being pushed hard at present demand levels. The evening peak window, when demand typically climbs back toward 950–1,000 MW+ in April conditions, is where today's primary price risk sits.
The grid stress score of 78.7 is elevated relative to demand levels that are mid-range for the region, reinforcing the view that system conditions — likely Basslink transfer constraints and hydro scheduling — are the operative price variable today more than demand volume. Traders should watch the 17:00–19:30 AEST window closely; if demand reaches the 1,050–1,100 MW range seen this morning, the $107–110/MWh spike pattern from earlier today is the most probable price outcome.