commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $90.16/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 919 MW and climbing. Demand has been rising steadily over the past 30 minutes from an evening trough near 887 MW, consistent with the typical post-sunset load build on an autumn Monday. The current price level represents a modest step up from the $88.14–$88.23/MWh floor that held through most of the afternoon and evening, with the market beginning to price in the incremental demand growth. Generation is being met entirely by hydro (431 MW) and wind (124 MW), with gas OCGT offline.

The day's demand profile traced a clear arc: a low of around 805 MW in the pre-dawn hours (around 05:45 AEST), a morning peak reaching 1,062 MW at approximately 19:55 AEST, followed by a mid-afternoon trough in the low-830s MW before the current evening rebuild. Price sensitivity across today's range was comparatively contained — the $88/MWh floor proved sticky across a wide demand band from roughly 830 MW to over 1,000 MW, with premiums only emerging at the extremes. The morning peak briefly pushed prices to $91.14/MWh at demand levels above 1,058 MW, while an earlier shoulder period around 06:15–06:30 AEST (local time) saw prices spike to $106.16/MWh as demand crossed 880–907 MW with supply conditions tighter ahead of the morning ramp.

Near-term price forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (21:00–22:30 UTC) are pegged at $88.16–$90.16/MWh, consistent with demand continuing to build into the 920–950 MW range as Monday evening household load consolidates. The forecast band is narrow and shows no expectation of a repeat of this morning's brief $106/MWh excursion. Demand is not forecast to approach today's 1,062 MW peak given the Monday evening profile typically rolls over before midnight. Further out into the overnight period (11:30 AEST onwards), load window data points to prices softening into the $69–$76/MWh range as demand retreats below 850 MW, suggesting the market anticipates comfortable supply adequacy through the early hours of Tuesday.

One market notice warrants attention for Tasmanian participants with mainland exposure: AEMO has issued two active foreseeable intervention notices for the SA region citing voltage management requirements, with a potential direction from 19:30 AEST today if insufficient market response materialises by 17:30 AEST. This has no direct price impact on TAS1 but may influence Heywood-adjacent dispatch and Bass Strait interconnector flows if SA conditions tighten during the evening peak window.