commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $96.79/MWh with demand at 965.78 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking upward from the overnight trough of around 810 MW reached between 12:00–13:00 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's history is instructive: when demand surged through the morning peak to a day-high of around 1,146 MW at 19:00 AEST, prices pushed into the $104–$118/MWh range, with the intraday peak of $117.73/MWh coinciding with demand touching 1,123 MW at 17:30 AEST. As demand eased through the afternoon and into the early evening, prices settled back to the $96–$97/MWh band where they currently sit — a band that has proven remarkably sticky, holding for the bulk of the post-morning-peak period despite demand falling more than 180 MW from its peak.
The overnight and early-morning period showed a sharper price-demand relationship. Demand falling below 820 MW between approximately 11:30–13:30 AEST produced prices dipping into the $20–$58/MWh range, with a notable floor of $20.02/MWh at 13:00 AEST. This sensitivity at low-demand periods reflects supply-side dynamics in a small, isolated grid where marginal costs can drop sharply when system load is light. Generation is currently running from hydro (353 MW) and wind (116 MW), with gas OCGT at zero output.
Forecast prices for the next two half-hour intervals (07:00 and 07:30 AEST) are locked at $96.16–$97.43/MWh, consistent with current conditions. Demand is now climbing again — up from 924 MW at 06:00 AEST toward the current 965 MW — following the typical Sunday morning ramp. Based on today's price-demand curve, sustained demand above 1,050 MW is the threshold where prices have consistently broken above $96.66/MWh toward the $104–$107/MWh tier. If the morning build continues toward the 1,100 MW range, a repeat of the $106–$107/MWh pricing seen during today's earlier peak is the most likely outcome. The forecast demand field in the data returns zero across all intervals, so no AEMO pre-dispatch demand forecast is available to quantify the expected peak precisely.
No market notices today directly affect Tasmania. The active notices relate to interconnector transfer limits in Queensland (Larcom Creek–Calliope River line outage) and negative settlement residue constraints on the NSW–VIC interconnector, neither of which bears directly on Tasmanian dispatch conditions today.