commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $83.41/MWh with demand at 935 MW as of 06:30 AEST, well below the overnight peak of 1,224 MW recorded in the early evening. The price-demand relationship across today's history is clear: when demand ran above 1,100 MW through the 07:30–09:00 AEST window (overnight UTC), prices held in the $120–$157/MWh range, with the session high of $157.07/MWh coinciding with demand at 1,023 MW during the morning period. As demand tracked down through the 800–870 MW trough in the early-to-mid afternoon (AEST), prices anchored firmly at $88.10/MWh for an extended run, indicating a stable marginal cost floor at that demand level. The current 935 MW reading and $83.41/MWh price reflects a modest evening ramp now underway, with demand climbing steadily from a 807 MW low at 01:55 AEST.

The forecast trajectory for the next settlement periods points to prices consolidating in the $70–$97/MWh band through the overnight and into tomorrow morning. AEMO's pre-dispatch forecasts show the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) settling near $70.12/MWh as demand remains moderate, well short of the demand levels that drove prices above $120/MWh earlier. The generation mix — hydro at 227 MW, wind at 204 MW, with gas OCGT at zero — is meeting current demand without marginal cost pressure from peaking plant, which explains the subdued price at this demand level.

A significant market notice issue requires attention: AEMO has flagged prices subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across a large block of intervals spanning approximately 04:20 to 06:30 AEST this morning. Several earlier reviewed intervals (02:00, 02:55, 03:15, 03:40, 05:10 AEST) have since been confirmed unchanged, establishing a pattern where reviews have not resulted in price revisions — but the 06:00–06:30 AEST intervals remain under active review. Participants with settlement exposure in those intervals should treat those prices as provisional. The demand-side picture for the remainder of today is straightforward: Friday afternoon demand in Tasmania typically stays contained below 1,000 MW, and with no forecast demand spike evident in pre-dispatch, the price outlook through to midnight AEST remains range-bound in the $70–$100/MWh corridor absent any supply-side disruption.