commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $128.04/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,183 MW — the highest level recorded across today's data and a clear driver of the price spike. The demand trajectory tells the story precisely: from a low of around 908 MW in the early afternoon (06:00–07:00 AEST) prices were sitting in the $66–$74/MWh range, then climbed steadily through the evening as demand recovered, crossing 1,100 MW around 08:30 AEST and pushing prices into the $113–$134/MWh band. The most recent three intervals show demand rising 157 MW in 30 minutes — from 1,026 MW at 06:00 AEST to 1,183 MW now — with the price response immediate and sharp, peaking at $133.59/MWh at 06:25 AEST before easing fractionally to the current $128.04/MWh.
The price-to-demand relationship across today's data is tight. Demand in the 900–1,000 MW range consistently attracted prices between $66–$96/MWh. Demand above 1,100 MW has reliably produced prices above $100/MWh, and the current 1,183 MW sits at the top of today's observed range, where supply offers thin and marginal plant pricing exerts upward pressure. The morning demand ramp — consistent with post-dawn heating load given a current temperature of 10.8°C and a heating demand index of 7.2 — is the direct cause of the elevated spot.
Forward price forecasts point to a modest easing. The most recent forecast run (06:31 AEST target for 07:00 AEST) prices the next half-hour at $120.12/MWh, consistent with demand plateauing or easing slightly off the current peak. Earlier forecast runs from the 23:00–01:00 AEST window had the 07:00 AEST interval priced as low as $96–$97/MWh, but demand has come in materially higher than those runs anticipated, explaining the upward revision to $120/MWh.
A material market notice risk is present today. AEMO has issued 30+ active "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 03:50 through to 06:30 AEST — a concentrated run of Manifestly Incorrect Input reviews targeting this morning's early demand ramp periods. One interval (03:35 AEST) has already been confirmed unchanged. The sheer volume of active reviews spanning the current price-sensitive window means final settlement prices for those intervals remain subject to revision, and traders with exposure to those periods should carry that uncertainty in their position assessments until AEMO closes each review.