commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $111.93/MWh at 07:05 AEST, with demand at 1,111.69 MW — up sharply from an overnight trough of around 769 MW recorded in the early hours of this morning. The price-demand relationship is tracking closely today: as demand climbed through the morning ramp from roughly 06:00 AEST, prices stepped up from the $96.24/MWh floor that anchored most of the overnight period, breaching $100/MWh as demand crossed the 1,050 MW mark and touching $130.97/MWh at the 07:00 AEST peak before partially retracing. This morning's peak mirrors a similar pattern seen during the prior evening ramp, where prices moved into the $106–$119/MWh range as demand pushed above 1,015 MW from around 05:30 AEST (UTC+11).

The near-term forecast points to prices consolidating around $114.79/MWh for the 08:00 AEST interval, consistent with demand remaining elevated above 1,100 MW through the morning business peak. Forward load windows suggest prices ease toward $96–$100/MWh as demand pulls back through the mid-morning trough — the data shows a reliable dip into the 860–930 MW range between approximately 09:00 and 14:00 AEST on this demand profile, which historically corresponds to prices settling back toward the $88–$96/MWh band seen through the middle of the trading day. An evening ramp back above 1,000 MW is likely from around 18:00 AEST, which would again test the $106–$119/MWh range based on today's demand-price calibration.

A material market notice risk applies today: AEMO has issued "prices subject to review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs across a large number of consecutive intervals spanning approximately 02:30 to 06:30 AEST. These notices cover the early-morning period when overnight prices were anchored near $70–$96/MWh at low demand levels of 769–860 MW. One interval (04:45 AEST) has already been confirmed unchanged, but the bulk of the reviewed intervals remain active. Participants with positions referencing those settlement periods should treat those prices as provisional pending AEMO's determination.

Demand sits at a level where Tasmania's price is sensitive to relatively small incremental load changes — the step from sub-$100/MWh to the $106–$130/MWh range occurred across a demand band of roughly 50–80 MW this morning. With generation currently comprising 296.96 MW hydro and 51.86 MW wind against 1,111.69 MW of demand, the balance is being met via the Basslink interconnector from Victoria, meaning any Victorian price volatility or interconnector constraint this evening will amplify Tasmania's own demand-driven price pressure during the anticipated evening ramp.