commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $97.19/MWh with demand at 1,091 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking a clear evening ramp that began around 05:00 AEST from a session trough near 814 MW in the mid-afternoon. That ~277 MW swing from trough to current level has pushed the price from the $88–$96/MWh band that held through the afternoon into the high-$90s, consistent with the dispatch stack stepping into slightly tighter supply conditions. The generation mix contributing 480 MW from hydro (421.83 MW) and wind (58.47 MW) is meeting the load without OCGT support at zero dispatch, indicating the current demand level remains within comfortable hydro-led supply capacity.

The price-demand relationship over the past 24 hours shows a well-defined structure: demand above ~1,200 MW pushed prices to $130–$248/MWh during the early-evening peak, demand in the 820–950 MW midday trough anchored prices solidly in the $95–$96/MWh range, and the current 1,091 MW level sits in the transitional zone where prices begin to firm but have not yet breached the $100–$130/MWh band seen at comparable demand levels overnight. The NEMDE forecast for the next trading interval is $96.24/MWh, suggesting dispatch sees current conditions as stable — demand is rising but supply response is keeping pace.

The forward price curve in the load window data points to prices holding in the $96–$101/MWh range through to around 09:30 AEST, with no forecast spike equivalent to last night's $248/MWh excursion. That single outlier at 07:55 AEST (UTC+10 equivalent) last night coincided with demand touching 1,238 MW and reflects how thinly the stack prices above the ~1,200 MW threshold. Traders and demand-side managers should note that the key demand inflection for price uplift is approximately 1,150–1,200 MW based on today's observed dispatch behaviour — if the evening ramp pushes back toward that range, which the trajectory from 1,091 MW currently makes plausible, prices are likely to firm toward $107–$130/MWh as observed in equivalent intervals overnight.

One market integrity flag for today: AEMO has issued multiple "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 03:30 through 06:15 AEST this morning, with manifestly incorrect inputs cited as the basis for review. The 05:50 interval has already been confirmed unchanged. The remaining open reviews cover intervals where prices settled at $96.24/MWh, so the financial exposure from potential revision is modest, but participants with positions across those intervals should monitor for further confirmation notices before the settlement window closes.