commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania spot price sits at $107.19/MWh with demand at 1,212.57 MW — the highest level recorded across the entire dataset and rising sharply through the evening ramp. Demand has climbed nearly 470 MW from its overnight trough of around 748 MW at 1:00 AEST, tracking a textbook autumn evening demand curve as heating load builds in cool conditions (9.6°C, heating demand index 8.4). The price response to this demand surge has been clear and stepped: prices held at $72.24/MWh through the overnight trough, broke above $96.24/MWh as demand crossed ~970 MW during the morning ramp, then pushed through $106–107/MWh as demand climbed above 1,100 MW from around 5:30 AEST. The relationship is tight — each structural step up in demand has corresponded directly to a price band shift, with hydro dispatch at 446.4 MW absorbing the load as the sole meaningful generation source (wind contributing just 2.2 MW, OCGT offline).
The forward price signal is elevated. AEMO forecasts are targeting $130.06/MWh for the 7:00 AEST interval, down from earlier projections as high as $168.25/MWh, suggesting the market has partially revised its peak demand expectations as the dispatch profile becomes clearer. Demand is still rising at the current interval, and with no indication of load rollover yet, prices are unlikely to soften materially before the peak. The $107.19/MWh current price remains well below the $130/MWh forecast, pointing to further upward pressure as demand pushes into what is historically the peak hour for Tasmanian evening consumption.
A significant market notice issue warrants attention: AEMO has flagged prices across a large block of early morning intervals — from approximately 2:30 AEST through to 6:30 AEST — as subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. These intervals broadly coincide with the overnight-to-morning demand ramp and the period where prices stepped from $58–72/MWh into the $85–99/MWh range. One interval (4:25 AEST) has already been confirmed unchanged. Traders should note that any revision to these intervals could alter the settlement position for today's trading, though the current price trajectory from the evening peak onward is not captured within the review window.
The demand outlook for the remainder of the day hinges on how quickly the evening peak plateaus. With demand still climbing at 1,212.57 MW and temperatures remaining low, the 1,200–1,300 MW range is the zone where Tasmanian hydro dispatch headroom tightens and interconnector flows from Victoria typically become a marginal price setter. If Basslink import capacity is being utilised to support the peak, any constraint there would amplify the price response. Absent that, the $130/MWh forecast level looks achievable if demand extends its current trajectory for another 30–60 minutes before turning over.