commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $96.24/MWh with total demand at 960.84 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Demand has climbed steadily from a overnight trough of around 765 MW (circa 14:00–15:00 AEST) and is now tracking upward through the morning, consistent with the typical Sunday residential load recovery pattern. The price-demand relationship today is tightly bounded: prices held at $72.24/MWh through the overnight trough, stepped up to the $96.24/MWh range as demand crossed back through the 900–950 MW zone, and printed brief spikes to $126–$127/MWh at the 970–1,000 MW threshold during this morning's ramp. That $127/MWh spike at 970 MW demand signals where the marginal hydro stack becomes constrained and a more expensive dispatch tranche is required.

The day's demand trajectory is now the key price driver. The forecast target interval of 07:00 AEST is priced at $107.66/MWh, consistent with demand pushing toward or above the 1,000 MW mark — a level the market cleared at $106–$107/MWh through the 17:00–19:00 AEST window. Demand at 960 MW is already approaching that threshold, and on a cool Sunday morning with a heating demand index of 10.5 and a 7.5°C temperature, residential load is likely to continue building through the breakfast period. The generation mix is lean: hydro is providing 332 MW and wind just 14.7 MW against a 960 MW load, with the gap being covered by Basslink imports. Gas OCGT sits idle, but its threshold for dispatch sets a ceiling dynamic in the price stack.

A material market notice risk exists today. AEMO has issued a sustained sequence of "prices subject to review" notices under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from 03:00 through 06:30 AEST. One interval — 04:10 AEST — has already been confirmed unchanged. The remaining intervals spanning the overnight and early-morning low-demand period remain under active review. Traders holding positions across those intervals should treat settled prices as provisional until AEMO completes its review process. The volume of notices — over 30 active — is unusually elevated for a single overnight window and warrants close attention to any revised price outcomes.

For the remainder of the day, the forecast load windows point to prices consolidating in the $96–$100/MWh range through mid-morning, with a drift toward $92–$97/MWh from around 09:00 AEST onward as Sunday demand softens. The critical watch point is whether demand clears 1,000 MW during the morning peak — if it does, the $107–$127/MWh dispatch tranches seen earlier today are readily available. Below that threshold, the market is likely to trade in the familiar $95–$97/MWh hydro-dominated band that has characterised most of the past 24 hours.