commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $106.72/MWh with demand at 997 MW as of 06:30 AEST, demand having climbed steadily from an overnight trough of around 738 MW at approximately 01:10 AEST. The demand trajectory over the past two hours tells the pricing story clearly: as load recovered from its overnight minimum and crossed the 950–970 MW range through the 05:00–06:00 AEST window, prices stepped up from the high-$80s/MWh to the $96–$107/MWh band. The current price is consistent with hydro dispatch at this demand level, with 329 MW of hydro and 62 MW of wind covering Tasmania's needs at 100% renewable generation and 0 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity.

The demand pattern today follows a textbook Saturday profile — a deep overnight trough, a gradual morning ramp, and a softer daytime peak than would occur on a weekday. Demand is likely to plateau in the 1,000–1,100 MW range through late morning before easing in the early afternoon, then recovering modestly into an evening peak. Critically, today's demand has not yet approached the level where price pressure intensifies: the overnight price history shows that when demand was running above 1,150 MW earlier in the overnight period (UTC timestamps consistent with weekday evening peak behaviour), prices reached $119.93/MWh. The current $106.72/MWh price reflects adequate hydro headroom at sub-1,000 MW Saturday morning demand.

The forecast signal for the next trading period points to $96.24/MWh — a modest softening from current levels — consistent with demand stabilising or easing slightly as the Saturday morning settles. The near-term price range of $94–$97/MWh reflected in load-window forecasts through to 08:00 AEST suggests the market is not anticipating a demand-driven price spike in the next few hours. However, traders should note that AEMO has issued a high volume of "prices subject to review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 04:05 through to 07:30 AEST this morning, citing manifestly incorrect inputs. Two of those intervals have since been confirmed unchanged. The remaining open reviews introduce settlement risk on intervals where prices were already in the $88–$107/MWh range — the direction of any revision is not yet determined, and positions held over those intervals carry that exposure until AEMO finalises each review.