A severe binding constraint (F_T+LREG_0050) emerged in the NEM with an exceptionally high shadow price of $232,000/MWh, indicating significant market scarcity and dispatch inflexibility. This constraint was the dominant binding limitation in the dispatch interval, substantially limiting power flow and creating substantial uplift costs for market participants.
The extreme marginal value of $232,000 for the binding constraint F_T+LREG_0050 suggests the constraint was actively limiting economically-optimal dispatch and that available generation or interconnection capacity was insufficient to relieve the scarcity condition. The presence of multiple additional binding constraints with lower marginal values ($3–$5/MWh) indicates broader system tightness, though the primary driver of the high-value event was the saturation of the F_T+LREG_0050 constraint, which prevented standard market mechanisms from balancing supply and demand without incurring exceptional costs.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.