SA1 experienced a sharp price spike to $845.78/MWh in the 18:35 interval on 23 June 2026, following two intervals at $349.99/MWh. The spike occurred during the early evening period with gas-fired generation (OCGT and CCGT) comprising the dominant supply mix at approximately 982 MW combined.
The binding constraint F_T+NIL_MG_RECL_R6 was active across all intervals with marginal values between $12.81–$14.17/MWh, indicating a transmission or operational limit was constraining the market. The sharp price jump in the 18:35 interval suggests a sudden tightening of supply conditions or a constraint becoming more binding, though the modest marginal values of the identified constraint indicate it alone cannot account for the full magnitude of the spike, suggesting additional supply-side pressures or demand-side factors not captured in the binding constraint data.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.