SA1 experienced a moderate price spike reaching $375.79/MWh during the 08:35 interval on 21 August 2026, with prices remaining elevated at $375/MWh in the following interval before declining sharply to $130/MWh. This represented a sharp 2.4× increase from the preceding baseline of approximately $156/MWh.
The price spike coincided with binding constraint F_T+RREG_0050 operating with a marginal value of $4.34–$4.35/MWh across both spike intervals. The generation mix during this period shows reliance on thermal generation (OCGT and CCGT totalling approximately 991 MW) and wind (471 MW), suggesting tight supply conditions where constraint-driven scarcity pricing emerged. The rapid recovery to $130/MWh in the subsequent interval indicates the constraint condition was transient, likely reflecting a temporary network or operational limitation rather than sustained fuel scarcity.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.