South Australia (SA1) experienced a moderate price spike reaching $591.89/MWh across three consecutive intervals (10:40–10:50 AEST on 30 July 2026), representing a sharp increase from the prior baseline of ~$480–$500/MWh. The spike reversed abruptly in the following interval, falling back to $500.44/MWh.
The price spike was driven by binding constraints with measurable marginal values, most prominently a constraint carrying a marginal value of $4.95/MWh and additional constraints with marginal values of $3.74–$3.75/MWh. The generation mix during the event was heavily reliant on gas-fired generation (OCGT and CCGT combined ~1,760 MW), with solar offline and minimal wind contribution (~81 MW), reducing supply flexibility. The tight binding constraints during this period of limited renewable availability and high gas dependency created the conditions for the elevated pricing.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.