SA1 experienced a sustained price spike of $400/MWh across seven consecutive intervals from 04:30 to 05:00, followed by a brief dip to $324.01 at 05:05, before returning to $400/MWh. The spike affected a contiguous trading period during early morning hours with relatively stable demand conditions.
The binding constraints indicate that a raise regulation constraint (F_T+LREG_0050) with a marginal value of $49.90 and multiple raise regulation reserve capacity constraints (F_TASCAP_RREG_0220) with marginal values ranging from $9.60 to $19.67 were active and limiting during this period. These constraints collectively account for approximately $101 of the $400 price, suggesting that reserve scarcity—particularly insufficient raise regulation capacity—was the primary driver of the elevated pricing, with the remaining price elevation attributable to underlying energy market tightness or additional unspecified marginal cost contributions.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.