South Australia (SA1) experienced high renewable penetration of 97.1% during the 14:05–14:30 period on 13 July 2026, driven predominantly by wind generation of 1,437.57 MW. Negative spot prices of approximately −$1.11/MWh were recorded across multiple settlement periods, indicating oversupply conditions typical of high renewable generation intervals.
The sustained negative pricing reflects excess renewable generation relative to demand, a common outcome when wind output is high and flexible dispatchable generation is minimal. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values of $4.02–$5.48/MWh indicate that network or system security limits were active during this period, suggesting that while wholesale prices turned negative, dispatch constraints were restricting further supply adjustments to manage power flows or system stability in response to the high renewable penetration.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.