South Australia (SA1) experienced a moderate price spike reaching $312.01/MWh across two intervals (17:15 and 17:25 on 29 July 2026), representing a sharp increase from the preceding $230/MWh settlement. Prices remained elevated and volatile throughout the period, fluctuating between $227 and $312/MWh across nine consecutive five-minute intervals.
The spike occurred during an evening peak period with high thermal generation (689–690 MW OCGT and 615 MW CCGT) and minimal renewable output (zero solar, ~43 MW wind), indicating tight supply conditions. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values between $3.65–$4.99/MWh constrained dispatch, limiting system flexibility and contributing to the elevated pricing required to balance demand.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.