SA1 experienced high renewable penetration at 86.76% during the 13:00–13:25 AEST period on 15 August 2026, driven primarily by wind generation of 1053.52 MW. Regional reference prices fluctuated between $76.26 and $89.44/MWh during this interval, with peak pricing at 13:10–13:15 AEST.
The elevated renewable penetration reflects substantial wind output coinciding with zero solar generation (typical for early afternoon conditions or non-optimal solar irradiance). Binding constraints F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 and F_T+RREG_0050, with marginal values between $4.3–$4.99/MWh, were active during the period, indicating constraint-driven pricing uplift. The modest constraint-induced price increments suggest these constraints were moderately limiting, contributing to the price levels observed but not causing extreme volatility typical of severe congestion events.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.