Indicative likelihood of a wholesale price spike (above $300/MWh) in the next 4 hours across the National Electricity Market. Derived from AEMO predispatch price sensitivities, refreshed every 30 minutes.
Outlook · not a forecast · not financial advice
For each region we take the latest AEMO predispatch sensitivities run, look at every 30-minute interval in the next 4 hours, and report the share whose 95th-percentile RRP exceeds $300/MWh, the boundary between gridIQ's Amber and Red NEM tiers. National figure is an unweighted mean of regional probabilities.
JSON available at /api/public/spike-probability . Free to embed and republish with attribution.
Source: gridIQ Price Spike Probability Index, gridiq.com.au/indices/spike-probability