Next forecast interval: $107.48/MWh at
VIC1 · NEM, 5-min dispatch intervals
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Victorian electricity price forecasts are heavily influenced by the output of the Latrobe Valley brown coal generators: Yallourn and Loy Yang A and B. These plants provide low-cost baseload generation, and their availability is the primary determinant of whether forecast prices sit at moderate or elevated levels.
Wind generation is the major variable in Victorian price forecasting. The state's large wind farm fleet across western Victoria can swing from near-zero to several thousand megawatts of output within hours, creating significant forecast uncertainty. High wind periods typically push forecast prices to very low or negative levels, while wind droughts cause sharp upward revisions.
Victoria's multiple interconnections (with South Australia, New South Wales and Tasmania) mean that forecast prices are influenced by conditions across the NEM. The Heywood interconnector flow from South Australia and Basslink flow from Tasmania can both significantly affect Victorian pre-dispatch price outcomes.
See current VIC spot prices for live dispatch context, or read the wholesale electricity guide for background on how AEMO pre-dispatch forecasts are constructed.
AEMO publishes pre-dispatch price forecasts for Victoria up to 40 hours ahead, refreshed every 30 minutes. gridIQ shows a 24-hour forecast chart above.
Victoria’s large wind farm fleet can swing from near-zero to several thousand megawatts of output within hours, creating significant forecast uncertainty compared to more baseload-dominated regions.
Pre-dispatch forecasts are AEMO’s best estimate given current bids and forecast demand, but they are not binding and can shift materially as wind forecasts, generator availability and interconnector flows are updated.
Low wind output combined with reduced brown coal availability from the Latrobe Valley generators, or constraints on the Heywood or Basslink interconnectors, typically drive the largest Victorian forecast price spikes.