A volatile 24 hours across the NEM, with early-morning oversupply pushing SA1, VIC1 and TAS1 into negative pricing on strong wind output, before a sharp reversal through the day. By evening, demand-driven ramps lifted prices firmly higher: NSW1 hit $119/MWh at morning peak, VIC1 climbed to $104/MWh tracking a steep evening ramp past 6,220 MW, and QLD1 and SA1 both traded above $95/MWh through their respective peaks. Watch today's evening peak across the eastern states as demand continues to climb, alongside any follow-through from Tasmania's constraint event.
Tasmania was the standout region, with a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) reaching a shadow price of $8.35 million and driving prices from $61/MWh to $320/MWh in just 15 minutes at 07:55. This followed an overnight trough as low as -$17/MWh on abundant hydro and wind, with renewable penetration hitting 88.6% — illustrating the scale of intraday swings possible when high renewable output meets a tightening network constraint. Basslink was exporting 371 MW to VIC1 against a 473 MW limit, with no interconnector constraints currently binding elsewhere.
WA1 traded in a comparatively orderly range over the past 24 hours, averaging $65/MWh with a peak of $104/MWh — broadly in line with eastern seaboard evening levels but without the extreme volatility seen in TAS1 or SA1. No constraint or renewable-penetration events were flagged for the region in this cycle.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM Sydney at $10.92/GJ, Brisbane at $11.18/GJ (up from $10.88/GJ) and Adelaide at $11.10/GJ (up from $10.70/GJ). LGCs closed the week ending 4 September at $8.00, up from $7.25 the prior week, continuing a modest recovery from the $7.75–$8.50 range seen through August.