Volatility was the theme overnight, with four of six NEM interconnectors binding at capacity and shaping a heavily constrained network into this morning. VIC-NSW sat pinned at its 622 MW export limit, while a moderate F_S+SETB_L1 constraint ($998/MWh shadow price) added further congestion signals. Prices ranged widely across regions — NSW1 climbed to $89.89/MWh by 06:30 AEST on demand of 8,034 MW as the morning ramp took hold, while VIC1 and SA1 remained soft off the back of an extraordinary afternoon/evening price collapse. Watch the morning ramp across NSW1 and QLD1 (spot at $78.52/MWh, demand 6,298 MW) for further tightening as interconnector limits persist.
Tasmania was the standout region overnight, with TAS1 prices swinging from −$15.01/MWh to $135.93/MWh within 24 hours. A major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) recorded an extreme shadow price of $8.352 million/MWh across two separate windows, alongside brief negative pricing and a period of 92.1% renewable penetration (hydro plus wind at ~3,653 MW) that still saw prices rise to $122.72/MWh — underlining how transmission limitations, not just supply, are driving Tasmanian price outcomes.
WA1 recorded a 24-hour average of $84/MWh with a peak of $130/MWh, tracking firmer than most NEM regions on both metrics. No specific WEM events were flagged in the past 24 hours — a comparatively quiet session against the volatility seen in the NEM's south-eastern regions.
South Australia's carbon intensity sits at just 0.0203 tCO2/MWh this morning with renewable penetration at 95.85%, wind supplying more than 100% of instantaneous demand at times overnight and driving negative pricing (−$3.61/MWh at 06:30 AEST).