A cold snap drove a classic overnight-to-morning demand ramp across the eastern states, with NSW1 demand climbing from a sub-4,900 MW trough to 7,894 MW by 06:30 AEST and spot prices easing back to $85.86/MWh after yesterday evening's $147.96/MWh peak. Similar patterns played out in VIC1 (3,600 MW to 6,551 MW) and QLD1 (demand climbing through the evening ramp to 6,386 MW). Overnight, brief negative pricing touched NSW1, VIC1, TAS1, QLD1 and SA1 between roughly 00:20–05:00, reflecting strong wind, solar and hydro output against low demand. No interconnector constraints were binding across the NEM as at 06:30 AEST. Watch today for continued morning peak demand and whether overnight renewable surpluses recur tonight.
Tasmania stood out overnight, swinging from an $18–29/MWh range under a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, shadow price $8.352 million, 22:10–22:35) to a price collapse of -$15.01/MWh around 08:45am, then a sharp climb to $101.29/MWh across six settlement periods despite 87.3% renewable penetration from combined hydro (2,286.6 MW) and wind (387.2 MW). TAS1 now sits at $73.10/MWh with demand at 1,182 MW and climbing into the morning peak.
WA1 recorded the highest 24-hour average of the six regions at $95/MWh, with a maximum of $120/MWh — a tighter, less volatile spread than several NEM regions despite the higher average. No specific WEM events were flagged in today's data; conditions appear comparatively steady.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours per STPASA. Gas hub prices firmed slightly at Adelaide ($10.42/GJ) and Brisbane ($11.11/GJ, up from $10.80/GJ) on 7 September, while Sydney eased marginally to $10.30/GJ. LGC prices continued their recent recovery, reaching $8.00 for the week ending 4 September, up from $7.25 the prior week but still below the $8.50 recorded in mid-August.