A textbook demand-driven overnight-to-morning swing played out across the eastern states. Queensland spent the early hours deep in negative pricing (down to -$35/MWh across 03:15–03:35) as combined solar and wind output pushed past 2,800 MW against thin demand, before spot prices rebounded sharply to $80.93/MWh by 06:30 AEST as load climbed roughly 2,700 MW off its trough. NSW and Victoria showed a similar pattern, with NSW1 easing to $90.01/MWh after touching the $105–113/MWh band mid-morning. The VIC-NSW interconnector is binding at 710 MW, consistent with the $44.63/MWh price gap between the two regions. Watch the morning ramp again today — QLD and NSW demand recovery from overnight lows remains the key swing factor for prices.
Tasmania stood out overnight, recording 90.4% renewable penetration at 07:00 driven by 1,926 MW of hydro and 351 MW of wind — yet prices still escalated from $62.87/MWh to $88.49/MWh within 25 minutes, pointing to supply-side constraints even amid abundant renewable output. TAS1 also holds the NEM's lowest carbon intensity this morning at 0.054 tCO2/MWh, with SA1 second at 0.123 tCO2/MWh on 78.6% renewables.
WA1 was the highest-priced region on the day, averaging $98/MWh with a peak of $139/MWh — well above every NEM region. No specific event data was flagged for WA1 overnight, but the elevated average is worth monitoring for energy managers with WA exposure.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices eased slightly day-on-day, with STTM Sydney down to $10.39/GJ and Adelaide to $10.40/GJ (from $10.79 and $10.95/GJ respectively), while Brisbane sits at $10.80/GJ. LGC prices firmed to $8.00 for the week ending 4 September, up from $7.25 the prior week, continuing a modest recovery from the $7.25–$8.50 range seen through August.