A mixed 24 hours across the NEM, with negative pricing events touching SA1, TAS1, VIC1, QLD1 and NSW1 as overnight solar, wind and baseload combinations produced periodic oversupply. Tasmania was the standout for volatility, swinging from 100% renewable generation and sub-$25/MWh pricing to a $75/MWh spike within ten minutes, then later hitting a $100.06/MWh peak before falling negative again. A major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, $8.35m shadow price) recurred twice in TAS1, pointing to network limitations rather than generation shortfall. VIC-NSW interconnector flow sat right at its 758 MW export limit this morning, keeping VIC prices near $10.50/MWh while NSW held higher at $65.50/MWh. Watch NSW1 and QLD1 today as demand ramps through the morning — both regions troughed overnight before climbing toward 7,388 MW and 6,246 MW respectively.
Tasmania takes the spotlight: two occurrences of the T_BLINK_TV_NGZ constraint binding at an $8.35 million shadow price, alongside a swing from 100% renewable penetration (hydro 268 MW, wind 472 MW) to a $100.06/MWh price spike and back to negative territory (-$4.69/MWh) inside 24 hours. TAS1's average sat at $29/MWh with a $100/MWh max — the constraint activity, not fuel mix, is driving the volatility.
WA1 remains the highest-priced region in the six-region snapshot, averaging $117/MWh over the past 24 hours with a peak of $163/MWh — well above every NEM region. No specific constraint or event data was flagged for WA1 today; the elevated pricing reflects the region's structurally tighter supply-demand balance rather than any single reported incident.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the NEM for the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices eased slightly day-on-day: STTM Sydney at $10.30/GJ (from $10.80), Adelaide at $10.20/GJ (from $10.75), and Brisbane at $10.82/GJ. LGC certificates continue a gentle downward trend, closing the week ending 28 August at $7.25, down from $8.50 three weeks earlier.