Overnight brought a familiar pattern of negative pricing across VIC1, TAS1, SA1, QLD1 and NSW1 as wind and solar output pushed into the early-morning demand trough, with VIC1 touching -$34.89/MWh and SA1 dipping to -$47.28/MWh. The morning ramp has since reversed the picture: NSW1 demand has climbed roughly 3,100 MW off its overnight low to 7,502 MW, with spot at $85.80/MWh, while QLD1 and VIC1 are also tracking firmer at $79.73/MWh and $75.87/MWh respectively as demand builds. Heywood interconnector flows from Victoria into South Australia are running maxed out at 545 MW against a 545.46 MW export limit — worth watching if SA tightens further today.
South Australia is today's standout region, swinging from -$47.28/MWh overnight to a $221/MWh peak and currently sitting at $101.02/MWh with demand at 1,371 MW. SA1 also recorded 95% renewable penetration late yesterday on strong wind and solar output, underscoring the region's wide price range across a single trading day.
WA1 was the most volatile region nationally over the past 24 hours, averaging $135/MWh with a $359/MWh peak. Two isolated spikes stood out: a jump to $303/MWh at the 09:35 interval (an 82% rise from the prior interval) and a further spike to $285/MWh at 19:05, both resolving within a single interval before prices stabilised.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM Sydney at $10.80/GJ and Brisbane leading at $11.17/GJ for 1 September, both up modestly on the prior day. LGC prices continued their recent slide, closing the week ending 28 August at $7.25, down from $8.50 a fortnight earlier. Tasmania briefly hit 100% renewable penetration this morning (06:35–06:55) on combined wind and hydro output of up to 1,359 MW, though a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, $8.35m shadow price) was also active in the region overnight, pointing to tight local system conditions despite the high renewable share.