A soft overnight demand trough tipped four NEM regions into negative territory between roughly 01:25 and 01:50 AEST, with NSW1 (-$4.81/MWh), VIC1 (-$3.50/MWh), SA1 (-$3.09/MWh) and TAS1 (-$3.56/MWh) all briefly oversupplied, while QLD1 saw two separate negative windows overnight and into the morning solar ramp. Prices have since climbed sharply through the morning peak: NSW1 hit $100.84/MWh and VIC1 $95.69/MWh by 06:30 AEST as demand ramped from overnight troughs (NSW ~8,459 MW, VIC ~6,022 MW) into the winter morning peak. No interconnectors were binding at 06:30 AEST, so today's price spreads reflect underlying supply-demand fundamentals rather than transfer constraints. Watch the QLD1 and TAS1 morning ramps and any repeat of Tasmania's constraint-driven volatility.
Tasmania was the region to watch, swinging from -$20.99/MWh overnight to $86.65/MWh by 06:30 AEST despite renewable penetration near 90–91.6% on hydro and wind. A major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with an $8.35 million/MWh shadow price drove a sharp RRP spike to $40.01/MWh on 29 August evening before easing to $23–25/MWh, and a further jump from $15.14/MWh to $85.09/MWh occurred between 06:35–07:00 — a reminder that abundant renewable supply doesn't preclude constraint-driven price volatility.
WA1 was the standout region nationally on price action: a spike to $352.26/MWh hit during the 12:05 trading interval, a 161% jump from the prior interval and well above the $115–135/MWh range seen in the preceding 25 minutes. Over 24 hours WA1 averaged $104/MWh with a $363/MWh peak — the highest average and maximum of any region covered today.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices eased slightly day-on-day, with STTM Sydney at $10.75/GJ (down from $11/GJ) and STTM Brisbane at $11.13/GJ (down from $11.24/GJ); STTM Adelaide sits at $10.68/GJ. LGC prices continued their recent decline, closing the week ending 28 August at $7.25, down from $7.75 the prior week and $8.50 two weeks prior.