A textbook overnight pattern played out across the NEM, with five of five mainland/Tasmanian regions dipping into negative pricing between roughly 11pm and 5am as strong wind, solar and hydro output met low demand troughs. VIC1 (-$34/MWh), TAS1 (-$35/MWh), SA1 (-$32/MWh), NSW1 (-$7/MWh) and QLD1 (-$3/MWh) all registered brief negative intervals, with SA1 and TAS1 also posting high renewable penetration readings of 89.2% and 89.8% respectively. By 06:30 AEST, prices had recovered across the board — NSW1 leading at $83.99/MWh on 7,435 MW demand — as morning ramps kicked in. Three of six interconnectors remain binding, including QNI pinned to its -1,318.7 MW import limit, actively arbitraging regional spreads. Watch today's demand ramp and whether SA1's overnight volatility (-$31.81/MWh to $86.44/MWh) repeats into the evening peak.
SA1 stood out for its overnight swing amplitude — from -$31.81/MWh at 03:05 AEST on near-zero demand (8 MW) to $86.44/MWh by 06:30 AEST — alongside sustained negative pricing events and 89.2% renewable penetration driven by solar and wind. SA's carbon intensity this morning sits at just 0.079 tCO2/MWh, among the lowest in the NEM, reflecting the wind and solar-heavy mix currently online.
WA1 recorded the highest average and peak prices of any region over the past 24 hours, averaging $96/MWh with a peak of $206/MWh — notably firmer than every NEM region. No specific WEM event narratives were captured overnight; the elevated pricing appears consistent with normal winter demand and supply dynamics rather than a flagged constraint.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices eased slightly day-on-day, with STTM Adelaide at $10.68/GJ (down from $11.10/GJ) and STTM Sydney at $11.00/GJ (down from $11.09/GJ); STTM Brisbane sits at $11.24/GJ. LGC prices continued their recent pullback, closing the week ending 28 August at $7.25, down from $7.75 the prior week and $8.50 two weeks prior.