A mild early-morning dip into negative pricing across NSW1, VIC1, QLD1 and TAS1 (all between −$0.93 and −$4/MWh around 04:40–05:15) gave way to a sharp evening peak build. By 06:30 AEST, NSW1 had touched $300/MWh twice in four intervals on demand climbing past 8,350 MW, while QLD1 ($290/MWh), SA1 ($229/MWh) and TAS1 ($259/MWh) all pushed well above their 24-hour averages. Watch today's evening peak windows across the eastern states for continued tightness, plus WA1's isolated price spike carrying through into WEM settlement.
Tasmania is the standout: renewable penetration hit 87.2–92.3% overnight on strong hydro (up to 1,478 MW) and wind, driving carbon intensity down to 0.0498 tCO2/MWh — the lowest in the NEM. Yet a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, shadow price $8.35 million) and a steep price climb from a $32/MWh overnight low to $258.64/MWh by evening show that high renewable output doesn't always mean price stability. Basslink was flowing 388.68 MW from TAS1 into VIC1, 85% of its export limit.
WA1 recorded the widest price range of any region, spiking to $363/MWh over the 24-hour window and hitting $303/MWh in an isolated 08:20 interval — a 47% jump from the prior interval before settling back into the $180–$210 band. Average price sat at $141/MWh. The spike points to a discrete supply-demand imbalance rather than a sustained system event.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast over the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices eased slightly day-on-day: STTM Sydney at $10.53/GJ (down from $10.80), Brisbane at $10.98/GJ (from $10.97), and Adelaide at $10.60/GJ. LGCs continued their pullback, closing the week ending 21 August at $7.75, down from $8.50 the prior week and off the $6.45–$8.50 range seen through late July and August.