The overnight period delivered the now-familiar solar/wind squeeze, with NSW1 and QLD1 both dipping into negative territory (−$6.62/MWh and −$7.01/MWh respectively) around 05:35–05:45 as high solar and wind output outpaced early-morning demand. SA1 also touched negative pricing later in the evening amid strong wind generation. Demand is now climbing through the morning ramp across the eastern states — NSW1 up to 7,931 MW and VIC1 to 6,068 MW as at 06:30 AEST — dragging spot prices back up to $95.20/MWh and $100.38/MWh respectively. Interconnectors remain unconstrained by binding limits but are running at notable utilisation, shaping today's regional spreads. Watch the WA1 evening peak given yesterday's spike behaviour.
Tasmania recorded the standout event: a binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) hit a shadow price of $8.35 million during the 21:20–21:50 window on 23 August, even as regional spot prices stayed modest at $34–$52/MWh. TAS1 also posted 90% renewable penetration overnight on strong hydro (~1,098 MW) and wind, underscoring how transmission constraints can bind hard without translating into extreme spot outcomes.
WA1 was the most volatile region in the country over the past 24 hours, averaging $124/MWh with a peak of $274/MWh. A price spike to $274.19/MWh hit at 04:45, up sharply from $140.03/MWh the prior interval and well above the $102–104/MWh baseline just 15–25 minutes earlier, before resolving within a single trading interval. Worth monitoring for recurrence during today's evening ramp.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices were steady-to-firm, with STTM Brisbane at $11.05/GJ, Sydney at $10.99/GJ (up from $10.86/GJ) and Adelaide at $10.50/GJ. LGCs eased to $7.75 for the week ending 21 August, down from $8.50 the prior week, continuing a pullback from the $6.45–$8.50 range seen through late July and August.