A run of negative-pricing events swept through VIC1, SA1, QLD1 and TAS1 overnight as solar and wind output outpaced demand between roughly 00:15 and 03:20 AEST, with QLD1 touching −$8.51/MWh and VIC1 −$4.67/MWh. Prices firmed through the morning ramp — NSW1 demand climbed from a 5,420 MW trough to 8,272 MW by 06:25 AEST, pushing spot to $71.40/MWh, while QLD1 eased to $66.97/MWh after an evening peak of $102.80/MWh. The VIC-NSW interconnector remains the binding constraint, exporting 718.64 MW at its export limit and capping what would otherwise be a wider price spread between the two regions. Watch NSW1 and VIC1 demand trajectories through the evening peak, and any further constraint activity in TAS1.
Tasmania was the standout region: a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) reached a shadow price of $8.352 million during a period of 100% renewable generation (hydro and wind exceeding 2,600 MW available), even as regional prices stayed moderate at $23.69–$55.12/MWh. TAS1 also recorded sustained negative pricing overnight before climbing to $48.10/MWh by 20:30 AEST, well below yesterday's evening peak of $111/MWh.
WA1 continues to trade at a notable premium to NEM regions, averaging $114/MWh over the past 24 hours with a peak of $149/MWh — well above NSW1's $51/MWh average and the sub-$40/MWh averages seen across VIC1, SA1, QLD1 and TAS1. No further WEM-specific event data was available for this period.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices eased slightly day-on-day, with STTM Sydney at $10.86/GJ (from $10.93/GJ) and STTM Adelaide at $10.50/GJ (from $11.10/GJ), while STTM Brisbane sits at $11.05/GJ. LGC prices softened to $7.75 for the week ending 21 August, down from $8.50 the prior week and $8.00 the week before that.